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水平井的生产动态受到来渗透性泥岩的强烈影响，当储层泥岩密度较高且较长井段位于泥岩层时，储层的采收率会急剧下降，而且采收率的不确定性也明显增大。基于许多随机信号建立一个油藏采收率的概率分布需要大量的工作和计算时间，但对海一个实例给定一个单一的优选参数，采收率的概率分布就很容易被近似求出。因为有效垂直渗透率决定水平井的产能，所以首先测试以垂直单向流为基础的有效垂直渗透率kev。由于应用范围的内外边界条件不具通用性，这种尝试汉有成功。按着在充分考虑内外边界条件情况下，测试了根据生产情况获得的有效垂直渗透率keV,p，根据十年后的采油情况，keV，P成功地评价了第一个实例，并且非常准确。keV，pT和产量的关系与泥岩密度或井段长度无关。本研究表明：为取得有代表性的渗透率，选取适当的边界条件是非常重要的。常规的渗透率规一化技术，由于把封闭和定压边界用于不精确的网格而导致失败。
The production dynamics of horizontal wells are strongly influenced by permeable mudstones. When the reservoir mudstone density is high and the longer section is located in the mudstone, the recovery rate of the reservoir will decrease sharply, and the uncertainty of oil recovery Significantly increased. Establishing a probability distribution of oil recovery based on many random signals requires a lot of work and computation time, but given a single preferred parameter for an instance of the sea, the probability distribution of oil recovery can be easily approximated. Since the effective vertical permeability determines the productivity of the horizontal well, the effective vertical permeability, kev, based on the vertical unidirectional flow is first tested. Due to the lack of versatility of the application’s internal and external boundary conditions, this attempt has been successful. The effective vertical permeability, keV, p, obtained from the production was tested in full consideration of the internal and external boundary conditions. The first example was successfully evaluated according to the situation of oil production after ten years, keV, P and was very accurate. The relationship between keV, pT and yield is independent of mudstone density or well length. This study shows that in order to obtain representative permeability, it is very important to select the appropriate boundary conditions. Conventional permeability normalization techniques fail due to the use of closed and fixed pressure boundaries for inaccurate grids.