目前,植物病害研究所使用的预测方法大多以经验方程外推为立论基础,其共同缺点是将确定值作为预测目的,对极端值的发生预测往往失真,而这正是病害预测理论必须解决的关键问题。然而,迄今仍缺乏一套能处理这类问题的有效工具,极值分布理论是灾害学研究的基础方法之一。用这类技术实施 At present, most of the prediction methods used in Plant Diseases Research Institute rely on extrapolation of empirical equations as the basis for their arguments. The common disadvantage of this method is that the predicted value is used as a forecasting target, and the prediction of the occurrence of extreme values ​​is often distorted, which is exactly what the disease prediction theory must solve The key issue. However, there is still a lack of effective tools to deal with such problems so far. The theory of extreme distribution is one of the basic methods of disaster research. Implement with this kind of technology