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本文沿着行为分析进路、运用实验经济学方法研究序贯决策中的信息瀑布现象及其行为匹配,率先分离了序贯决策中的决策行为——贝叶斯法则决策、非贝叶斯法则决策和平衡。设计了包含被试类型、备选集对称性等设置的序贯决策实验,结果表明,备选集对称性和决策序位等因素对决策者的行为方式和效率影响显著,被试类型、累积损益等因素的影响不显著;受禀赋效应和模糊规避的影响,平衡状态下决策者对私人信息赋予了较高权重。对序贯决策行为进行全面分析,分离出信息瀑布行为,并厘清其发生机理和决策特征及效率,这对理解和治理银行挤兑、网络群体性事件、金融危机等现象有着重要的理论和现实意义。
Along the way of behavioral analysis, this paper studies the phenomenon of information cascade and its behavior matching in sequential decision-making by means of experimental economics, and takes the lead in separating the decision-making behaviors in sequential decision-making - Bayes rule, non-Bayesian rule Decision-making and balance. A series of sequential decision-making experiments were designed, including the types of subjects and the symmetry of alternative sets. The results show that the factors such as the symmetry of alternative sets and decision-making order have a significant impact on the decision maker’s behavior and efficiency. The types of participants, Profit and loss and other factors are not significant. Due to the effect of endowment and fuzzy avoidance, policymakers give a higher weight to private information under the equilibrium condition. To conduct a comprehensive analysis of sequential decision-making behavior, separate the behavior of information waterfall and clarify its occurrence mechanism and decision-making characteristics and efficiency, which have important theoretical and practical significance for understanding and governing bank run-outs, network group events, financial crisis and so on .