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为获得充填采煤沿空留巷顶板下沉量相对比较准确的预测公式,以某矿1316充填采煤工作面沿空留巷为工程背景,基于多元回归分析法,在分析充填采煤沿空留巷覆岩移动特征的基础上,以充实率、采高、巷道跨度、巷旁支护体强度、巷旁支护体宽度、硬岩厚度比系数、采深和工作面长度8个主要影响因素,结合正交实验设计、FLAC~(3D)数值模拟及SPSS软件对沿空巷道顶板下沉量进行了多元非线性回归分析,得到沿空留巷顶板下沉量的非线性预测公式。通过1316工作面实测参数对预测公式进行验证,结果表明多元回归分析生成的预测模型具有较高精确度。
In order to obtain a relatively accurate forecasting formula for the subsidence of gob-side entry retaining gob of filling coal mining, taking the gob-side entry retaining of a 1316 coal mining face of a mine as the engineering background and based on the multiple regression analysis method, On the basis of the movement characteristics of overburden strata, eight main influencing factors, such as solidification rate, mining height, roadway span, roadway support strength, roadway support width, ratio of hard rock thickness, mining depth and working face length, Combined with orthogonal experimental design, FLAC 3D numerical simulation and SPSS software, multiple nonlinear regression analysis was carried out on roof subsidence of gob-side entry. The nonlinear prediction formula of gob roof subsidence was obtained. The prediction formula of 1316 working face was validated. The results showed that the prediction model generated by multiple regression analysis had higher accuracy.