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2016年2月4日,《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(简称TPP)正式签署。与此同时,同样由美国主导的美欧之间的《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定》(Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership,简称TTIP)的相关谈判也正紧锣密鼓地进行。TTIP是美国与欧洲之间的全方位自由贸易协定。其目的在于进一步简化美国和欧盟之间的贸易和投资规则,加快经济一体化进程,并最终建成美欧自由贸易区。欧美有关TTIP的谈判始于2013年,截至2015年底已完成11轮谈判。目前双方尚未达成任何协议,但双方将在2016年加快谈判进度,争取在美国总统奥巴马任上(2017年1月之前)完成谈判,使其成为奥巴马的政治成就之一。实际上,TTIP对欧美的战略意义大于经济效益。TTIP主要关注欧美之间的非关税壁垒,未来10年TTIP将扩大欧美贸易,但对经济增长贡献有限。然而TTIP对欧美双方具有重要战略意义,主要包括巩固欧美战略同盟、保持欧美在全球经济规则中的话语权和降低欧洲对俄罗斯能源的依赖等。目前TTIP的谈判面临技术性问题、欧盟内部分化和审批流程漫长三大挑战。美国食品及化学品标准与欧盟存在落差、投资者与东道国争端解决机制(ISDS)则是TTIP谈判中最大的技术性分歧。欧盟大部分民众对TTIP持欢迎态度,但政府态度则出现分化:法国强硬,英国积极,德国中立。即便谈判完成之后,TTIP在各国的审批流程亦漫长,不确定性较大。TTIP对中国的潜在不利影响包括:影响中国国际贸易份额;限制中国在全球产业链中的上升趋势,在规则制定上形成被动;对中国现有的贸易和投资模式提出挑战。我们应重视和关注TTIP,加快中欧自由贸易协定的可行性研究;同时主动提出促进世界贸易发展的中国方案,提升中国在国际贸易规则制定方面的话语权;此外,还应加大政府在公共外交上的投入,在欧洲营造有利于中国的舆论环境。
On February 4, 2016, the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) was officially signed. At the same time, negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), also headed by the United States, are also taking place in full swing. TTIP is a full range of free trade agreements between the United States and Europe. Its purpose is to further simplify the trade and investment rules between the United States and the European Union, accelerate the process of economic integration, and finally establish a free trade zone between the United States and Europe. Europe and the United States began negotiations on TTIP in 2013, as of the end of 2015 has completed 11 negotiations. At present, no agreement has yet been reached between the two sides, but both sides will speed up the negotiation progress in 2016 in an attempt to complete the negotiations on U.S. President Barack Obama’s presidency (by January 2017), making it one of Obama’s political achievements. In fact, TTIP’s strategic significance to Europe and the United States is greater than the economic benefits. TTIP mainly focuses on non-tariff barriers between Europe and the United States. In the next 10 years, TTIP will expand its trade with Europe and the United States, but its contribution to economic growth will be limited. However, TTIP is of strategic importance to both Europe and the United States, mainly including consolidating the strategic alliance between Europe and the United States, keeping the European and American voices in the global economic rules and reducing Europe’s dependence on Russia’s energy sources. At present, the negotiation of TTIP is facing technical problems and the three major challenges of the long process of EU internal division and approval. There is a gap between the US food and chemical standards and the EU, and the investor-host country dispute resolution mechanism (ISDS) is the largest technical disagreement in the TTIP negotiations. Most people in the EU welcome the TTIP, but the government’s attitude is divided: France is tough, the United Kingdom is active and Germany is neutral. Even after the negotiations are completed, TTIP approval process in various countries is also long and uncertain. Potential adverse impacts of TTIP on China include: affecting China’s share of international trade; restricting China’s upward trend in the global industrial chain, becoming passive in formulating rules and challenging China’s existing trade and investment model. We should attach importance to and pay attention to TTIP to speed up the feasibility study of free trade agreement between China and EU. At the same time, we should take the initiative to put forward China’s plan to promote the development of world trade and enhance China’s right of speech in the formulation of international trade rules. In addition, government should increase public diplomacy On the input in Europe to create a favorable environment for public opinion in China.