论文部分内容阅读
[目的]介绍灰色数列GM(1,1)模型在恶性肿瘤死亡趋势预测中的应用。[方法]以对庐江县居民恶性肿瘤死亡率预测为例,说明GM(1,1)模型的应用方法、条件及拟合优度检验。[结果]利用庐江县1990～1999年恶性肿瘤死亡率数据所建的灰色数列GM(1,1)模型为:Χ^(1)(k+1)=3941.86e0.039k-3772.35。据此模型推得庐江县2000年、2004年、2008年、2012年恶性肿瘤死亡率分别为223.46/10万、261.29/10万、305.52/10万、357.24/10万。这与庐江县2000年、2004年、2008年的恶性肿瘤实际死亡率204.93/10万、249.86/10万、291.17/10万相对比,其平均相对预测误差仅为6.18%,预测精度高,能达到预测要求。同时表明庐江县恶性肿瘤有逐年上升趋势。[结论]GM(1,1)模型能够较好地用于恶性肿瘤死亡趋势预测。
[Objective] The purpose of this paper is to introduce the application of gray number sequence GM (1,1) model to predict the death trend of malignant tumor. [Method] Taking the prediction of the malignant tumor mortality in Lujiang County residents as an example, the application methods, conditions and goodness of fit test of the GM (1,1) model are described. [Results] The gray sequence GM (1,1) model constructed from the data of malignant tumor mortality from 1990 to 1999 in Lujiang County was: X ^ (1) (k + 1) = 3941.86e0.039k-3772.35. According to this model, the death rates of malignant tumors in Lujiang County in 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 were 223.46 / 100000, 261.29 / 100000, 305.52 / 100000 and 357.24 / 100000 respectively. Compared with the real death rates of malignant tumors of 204.43 / 100000, 249.86 / 100000 and 291.17 / 100000 in Lujiang County in 2000, 2004 and 2008, the average relative prediction error was only 6.18%, and the prediction accuracy was high. Reached forecasting requirements. At the same time shows that Lujiang County malignant tumors have increased year by year. [Conclusion] The GM (1,1) model can be used to predict the death of malignant tumor.