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本文构建了寿险保费收入、上证综合指数和交易所国债交易额的向量自回归模型,通过实证分析发现我国股票与寿险产品存在显著地替代效应,而国债与寿险产品的互动作用并不明显。证券市场的不完善和寿险产品结构及其投资渠道的限制,阻碍了寿险市场和证券市场的良性互动。根据以上结论,本文提出了促进寿险市场和证券市场互动发展的政策建议。
This paper constructs a vector autoregression model of life insurance premium income, Shanghai Composite Index and exchange-traded government bond transaction volume. Empirical analysis shows that China’s stock and life insurance products have significant substitution effect, while the interaction between national debt and life insurance products is not obvious. The imperfectness of the securities market and the restrictions on the structure of life insurance products and their investment channels have hindered the positive interaction between the life insurance market and the securities market. Based on the above conclusions, this paper presents policy recommendations to promote the interactive development of life insurance market and stock market.