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在传统理论中,本币升值会导致净出口减少。但是,自2005年以来,伴随着人民币持续升值,中美贸易顺差不但没有减少反而大幅上升,由此产生了所谓的“中美贸易顺差之谜”。本文借鉴新开放经济宏观经济学Redux模型,在动态一般均衡的分析框架下分析美元本位对中美贸易顺差的影响,通过数值模拟和经验检验发现,美元本位是导致“中美贸易顺差之谜”的重要原因。美元本位的作用越强,汇率的传递效应越弱,汇率变动对经常项目的影响越小。在汇率传递的不对称影响下,美元本位可能导致汇率对经常项目影响的逆转。
In traditional theory, an appreciation of the domestic currency leads to a decrease in net exports. However, since 2005, along with the continued appreciation of the renminbi, the Sino-US trade surplus has risen sharply instead of declining. As a result, the so-called “mystery of the trade surplus between China and the United States” has arisen. This paper draws lessons from the Redux model of the macroeconomics of the new open economy and analyzes the impact of the U.S. dollar standard on the trade surplus between China and the United States under the framework of a dynamic general equilibrium. Through numerical simulations and empirical tests, it is found that the dollar standard is the enigma of the “Sino- ”The important reason. The stronger the role of the U.S. dollar is, the weaker the exchange rate pass-through effect and the smaller the impact of exchange rate changes on the current account. Under the asymmetry of exchange rate movements, the dollar-based position could lead to the reversal of the impact of the exchange rate on the current account.