本文建立博弈模型描述页岩油革命对国际原油市场的影响。基于恒定弹性假定以及开采成本以利率的速度随时间增加的假定,如果产油商进行产量博弈(古诺模型),纳什均衡表明面对页岩油革命的威胁,OPEC没有理由改变开采计划,但随着总产量的增加原油价格将在更低位置上建立均衡。 This article establishes a game model to describe the impact of the shale oil revolution on the international crude oil market. Based on the assumption of constant elastic assumptions and the fact that mining costs increase with the rate of interest rates over time, OPEC has no reason to change the mining plan if the oil producer undertakes a production game (Cournot model) and Nash Equilibrium shows that in the face of the threat of a shale oil revolution As total output increases, crude oil prices will be set at a lower level.