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基于低碳转型的内涵,本文以环渤海17个沿海地市2005—2012年的面板数据为基础,构建环渤海沿海地市低碳转型的评价指标体系,运用集对分析法对其进行评价研究,并采用核密度估计模型及GIS空间分析技术对其结果进行时空差异分析,揭示其内在变化规律。研究结果表明:(1)自2005年到2012年,环渤海沿海地市低碳发展颓势明显,各地市低碳转型没有取得明显进展,各地市之间转型绩效的整体差距较大。(2)环渤海沿海地市经济增长在空间格局中并没有显著的变化,而在产业结构、能源利用、生态环境、发展支撑方面均呈现出反向变化的态势,说明低碳转型成效并不显著,仍然保持传统的发展态势。(3)环渤海沿海地市低碳转型绩效的时空差异是多种因素综合作用的结果,包括资金、人力与基础设施等经济社会支撑因素,国家政策、科学技术、低碳意识及企业家素质等新型推动因素,资源(能源)禀赋、区位条件等自然基础因素。
Based on the connotation of low-carbon transition, based on the panel data of 17 coastal cities in the Bohai Rim from 2005 to 2012, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of low-carbon transition in the coastal city of Bohai Rim, and evaluates it by using set pair analysis , And uses the nuclear density estimation model and GIS spatial analysis technology to analyze the spatiotemporal variance of the results and reveal the inherent variation. The results show that: (1) From 2005 to 2012, the development of low-carbon development in the coastal cities around the Bohai Sea is obviously declining. There has been no significant progress in the low-carbon transition in various cities around the world, and the overall gap between the cities in transition has been large. (2) There is no significant change in the spatial pattern of economic growth in the coastal cities of the Bohai Rim, but a negative trend in the industrial structure, energy use, ecological environment and development support shows that the effect of low-carbon transition is not Significantly, still maintain the traditional development trend. (3) The spatial and temporal differences in the performance of low-carbon transition in the coastal cities around the Bohai Sea are the result of a combination of various factors including economic and social support such as capital, manpower and infrastructure, national policies, science and technology, low-carbon awareness and entrepreneurial quality And other new drivers, resources (energy) endowments, location conditions and other natural basis of the factors.