长期水文预报是介于水文学、气象学、气候学等多学科之间的一门边缘学科,由于影响因素的复杂性与目前科学水平的限制,长期水文预报精度还不高。如何提高预报精度是水文学家关注的问题。本文着重从物理成因和预报的数学方法两方面对长期水文预报现状进行了研究,指出了现状条件下水文预报的不足并对其进行了展望。 Long-term hydrological forecasting is a fringe discipline between hydrology, meteorology, climatology and other disciplines. Due to the complexity of the influencing factors and the current scientific level, the long-term hydrological forecasting accuracy is not high. How to improve forecast accuracy is a concern of hydrologists. This paper focuses on the current situation of long-term hydrological forecasting from both the physical causes and the mathematical methods of forecasting. It points out the shortage of hydrological forecasting under the current conditions and prospects it.