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煤制油技术在经过了多年的摸索示范后,现在已经基本实现了技术上的可行性,同时煤价的下跌和油价的高位运行也使得煤制油项目的经济性提高。在这一背景下,政府逐渐放松了对煤制油项目立项的严格限制,开始有条件地审批第二轮煤制油示范项目。通过示范可知,煤制油技术饱受诟病的耗水、排放等问题可以通过适当增加投资解决,不会构成技术发展的障碍。而煤制油产品则会面临成品油市场激烈的竞争,受到液化天然气、电动汽车的狙击,其市场风险还需谨慎评估。不过,间接煤制油技术的特性使其具有较大的灵活性,向化工方向转移或许是未来的一个突破口。
After many years of exploration and demonstration, coal-to-liquids technology has now basically achieved technical feasibility. At the same time, the drop in coal prices and the high oil prices have also made coal-to-liquids projects more economical. Against this background, the government gradually relaxed the strict restrictions on the establishment of coal-to-oil projects and started the conditional approval of the second round of coal-to-oil demonstration projects. Through the demonstration, we can see that coal-to-oil technology has been criticized for water, emissions and other issues can be properly increased investment to solve, will not constitute an obstacle to technological development. However, coal-to-liquid products will face fierce competition in the refined oil product market. Due to the attacks on LNG and electric vehicles, their market risks need to be carefully assessed. However, the characteristics of indirect coal liquefaction technology to make it more flexibility, the shift toward the chemical industry may be a breakthrough in the future.