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根据１９９３ 年“新疆地震减灾综合研究”课题的分析结果，认为阿图什地区是新疆未来５～１０年发生６．５级以上强震的危险区之一。有关人员对阿图什地区加强了监视，进行了跟踪分析，作出了中长期至短期不同时间尺度的预报。结果对应了１９９６ 年３ 月１９ 日的新疆阿图什６．９ 级地震。地震发生后，又据余震序列和前兆资料分析结果，成功实现了５．３ 级强余震的临震预报。预报过程证明，对中长期预报所确定的地震危险区，针对其地震活动和前兆异常发展的动态变化进行连续分析，从空间演化图象和时间的进程变化上跟踪研究，可以逐步缩小预报的空间范围和时间尺度
According to the analysis of the 1993 “Comprehensive Study on Earthquake Disaster Reduction in Xinjiang”, it is considered that Artush area is one of the dangerous areas where strong earthquakes above 6.5 magnitude occur in Xinjiang in the next 5 to 10 years. The relevant personnel stepped up surveillance on the Atushi region and conducted follow-up analysis and made forecasts on different timescales ranging from long-term to short-term. The result corresponds to a 6.9 magnitude earthquake in Artush, Xinjiang, on March 19, 1996. After the earthquake, according to aftershock sequence and precursor data analysis results, the successful realization of the 5.3 magnitude strong aftershock forecast. The forecast process proves that continuous analysis of the dynamic change of seismic activity and precursor anomalous development in the earthquake danger zone identified by medium- and long-term prediction can be gradually narrowed down from the evolution of space evolution image and the time course study Range and time scale