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在塔吉克斯坦—新疆３５条全新世活断层中，２４条发生过２次以上古地震，发生７．０级以上古地震的平均复现期为３２４２±５５年。阿尔金活动断裂带是最活跃的断层，其古地震平均复现期为４１７±５５年。将每条活断层的古地震复现期与最后一次７．０级以上地震发生的时间相比，巴里坤纸房—秦大汉活断层、托里活断层、沙湾独山子—安集海活断层、霍尔果斯活断层及吐鲁番盆地中央活动断裂带为预警式活断层，有发生７．０级以上地震的危险，即未来北天山地震带与西准噶尔—阿尔泰地震带是有强震危险的地震带。这两条地震带的古地震复现期一般比南天山地震带与帕米尔—阿尔金山地震带长。４条地震带的古地震平均复现期为５８９±２年。塔吉克斯坦—新疆古地震的平均复现期为１３９±１年
Among the 35 active faults in the Tajikistan-Xinjiang region, 24 occurred more than 2 times of ancient earthquakes, and the average recurrence period of paleoseismicity above 7.0 occurred was 3242 ± 55 years. The Altun active fault zone is the most active fault with an average recurrence of ancient earthquakes of 417 ± 55 years. Comparing the reappearance time of each active fault with that of the last earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or above, the Barrykun paper house-Qin’dahan active fault, Tori-active fault, Sandy Bay Dushanzi-Anjihai active The fault, the Horgos active fault and the central active fault zone of the Turpan Basin are pre-warning active faults, and there is a danger of a magnitude 7.0 earthquake. In the future, the North Tianshan seismic belt and the West Junggar-Altay earthquake belt are of strong earthquake risk Seismic zone. The reappearances of the ancient earthquakes in these two seismic belts are generally longer than those in the southern Tianshan seismic belt and the Pamir-Altun earthquake. The average recurrence of the four earthquakes was 589 ± 2 years. The average recurrence period of the ancient earthquake in Tajikistan - Xinjiang is 139 ± 1 years