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山西省水资源紧缺，近年又呈下降趋势，严重影响了山西省国民经济的发展。大中型水库是山西省的命脉供水工程，研究全省大中型水库的年际来水变化情况，具有很实际的意义。本文采用了坎德尔秩次检验法检验水库径流的趋势性，采用有序聚类法找出径流系列的跳跃点，用秩和检验法检验跳跃点的显著性，用线性回归法对跳跃点前后累积径流系列进行回归分析，并对其进行Ｆ检验，最后得出全省４０座大中型水库的径流趋势变化结果，作出“大中型水库年径流下降率频率分布图”、“大中型水库第一类跳跃点频率分布图”，分析结果表明：山西省大中型水库大部分下降趋势，下降率大部分集中在０．４～０．７之间，产生下降的年份大都在１９７６～１９８５年间，１９７６～１９７７年尤为显著。
The shortage of water resources in Shanxi Province has shown a downward trend in recent years, seriously affecting the development of the national economy in Shanxi Province. Large and medium-sized reservoirs are the lifeblood supply projects in Shanxi Province. It is of practical significance to study the interannual influx of large and medium-sized reservoirs in the province. In this paper, Kandell’s rank test was used to test the trend of reservoir runoff. Sequential clustering was used to find out the jumping point of runoff series. The significance of jumping points was tested by rank sum test. Before and after the jumping point Regression analysis of the series of cumulative runoff, and F test, and finally the results of runoff trends of 40 large and medium-sized reservoirs in the province were obtained, and the frequency distribution chart of annual runoff descent rate of large and medium reservoirs was made. The results show that most of the large and medium-sized reservoirs in Shanxi Province have a downward trend, most of which fall in the range of 0.4-0.7. Most of the declining years occurred between 1976 and 1985, and 1976 ~ 1977 is particularly significant.