论文部分内容阅读
根据广西160多个乡(镇)猪种布鲁氏菌病(简称猪种布病)监测资料,应用模糊数学方法,建立人间猪种布病流行类型的一个Fuzzy动态数学模型。使用1985年资料,验证模型与人间感染率划分的流行类型符合率达90％以上。利用这个数学模型,可以预报广西各疫区乡(镇)近期(2～3年)内人间猪种布病属于何种流行类型。经过三年现场考核验证结果,预测的符合率达90％。
According to the monitoring data of brucellosis of swine breeds in more than 160 villages and towns in Guangxi province, a fuzzy dynamic mathematical model of epidemic type of human swine brucellosis was established by using fuzzy mathematics method. Using the data from 1985, the coincidence rate of the prevalence types of models and human infection rates was over 90%. Using this mathematical model, it is possible to predict what epidemic types of human swine breeds are within the recent (2-3 years) rural (town) After three years of on-site examination and verification results, the predicted compliance rate of 90%.