在全国煤炭市场大调查的基础上 ,分析了全国生活用能结构、生活用煤的发展变化情况及原因 ,在此基础上对全国后十年城镇生活用煤量、农村生活用煤量作了预测。预测结果为 :全国生活用煤总量逐年下降趋势 ,2 0 0 0年预计为 1 1 60 0万 t,2 0 0 5年为 1 0 90 0万 t,2 0 1 0年为 970 0万 t;人均用煤量 2 0 0 0年为 90 kg,2 0 0 5年为 82 kg,2 0 1 0年为 69kg。 Based on the investigation of the national coal market, this paper analyzes the development and changes of domestic energy consumption structure and domestic coal use, and on the basis of this, analyzes the reasons for the change of domestic consumption of coal and rural domestic coal consumption in the last decade prediction. The forecast results are as follows: The total domestic coal consumption will decrease year by year, with an estimated 11.6 million tons in 2000, 10.9 million tons in 2005 and 97.0 million tons in 2010 t; per capita coal consumption was 90 kg in 2000, 82 kg in 2005 and 69 kg in 2010.