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对1997～2004年长江口凤鲚捕捞量建模进行了研究,对多个相关因子分别建立了多元回归模型和GM(1,1)模型。最优回归预测方程为Y=-0.9933+0.4547X1+0.8617X2+0.6117X3;最优时间响应函数为X1(t+1)=-60.3823e-0.0169t+61.4493。多元回归预测模型适合于以丰富的参数精确预测当期捕捞量,而GM(1,1)预测模型则可以少量参数对捕捞量进行中长期初步预测,两者结合可以加强对凤鲚捕捞的科学管理。
This paper studied the modeling of the catches of Fungi in the Yangtze Estuary from 1997 to 2004, and established multiple regression models and GM (1,1) models for multiple related factors. The optimal regression equation is Y = -0.9933 + 0.4547X1 + 0.8617X2 + 0.6117X3. The optimal time response function is X1 (t + 1) = - 60.3823e-0.0169t + 61.4493. The multivariate regression prediction model is suitable for accurately predicting current catch with abundant parameters, while the GM (1,1) forecasting model can predict the catch in a medium and long term with a small amount of parameters. The combination of the two can enhance the scientific management of the harvest .