本文以机械传动装置为例,概述并讨论可靠性预测的方法,简要分析在设计阶段及试验改进阶段提高样机可靠性的几种可能的途径。预测分三个阶段进行;1)研究系统动力模型,分析加载情况和结构方案,改善系统的动力性能;2)根据概率法进行计算或者用加速试验,确定系统中各元件和零件的寿命和无故障特性,选择有效途径改善部分零件的这些特性;3)根据系统各元件之间的相互联系,对整个系统的可靠性作积分评估。 Taking mechanical transmission as an example, this paper summarizes and discusses reliability prediction methods and briefly analyzes several possible ways to improve the reliability of prototype during the design phase and experimental improvement phase. The prediction is divided into three stages: 1) studying the system dynamic model, analyzing the loading situation and structural scheme, and improving the dynamic performance of the system; 2) calculating according to the probabilistic method or using accelerated tests to determine the life span and none of the components and parts in the system Fault characteristics, select an effective way to improve these parts of the characteristics of these parts; 3) According to the interaction between the various components of the system, the reliability of the entire system for integral assessment.