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以位于宁波市甬江口的镇海站1951~2013年的年最高潮位序列为例,分别采用Spearman秩次相关检验、M-K检验方法分析其趋势变化,采用滑动秩和检验、Pettitt检验方法检查其变异点,发现该站年最高潮位存在显著上升趋势,且先后在1981、1996年发生跳跃,不同时期的样本并非来自同一总体。因此,选邻近的湖头渡为参证站,划分为1951~1980、1981~1995、1996~2013年三个阶段,建立了镇海站与湖头渡站的高潮位相关关系,以1996~2013年代表现状,对1951~1980、1981~1995年的实测年最高潮位进行修正,使修正后的序列满足频率分析的一致性要求。分别对经修正和未经修正的序列进行频率计算,表明同等频率下前者求出的设计值均大于后者,从而为甬江口涉水工程的规划建设和运行等提供更合理的依据。
Taking the annual climax series of Zhenhai station located at Yongjiangkou of Ningbo City from 1951 to 2013 as an example, Spearman rank correlation test and MK test were used to analyze the trends of the changes. The variance of variance was tested by sliding rank test and Pettitt test And found that there was a significant upward trend of the highest tide level in this station. In 1981 and 1996, it successively jumped, and samples from different periods did not come from the same population. Therefore, we selected the adjacent Lake Taudu as the reference station and divided it into three stages from 1951 to 1980, 1981 to 1995 and 1996 to 2013. The correlation between the climax of Zhenhai and Hududu stations was established. From 1996 to 2013 The status quo of the year, the 1951 ~ 1980, 1981 ~ 1995 measured year peak tide to be amended so that the revised sequence to meet the consistency of frequency analysis requirements. The calculated frequencies of the modified and uncorrected sequences respectively show that the designed values of the former are greater than the latter at the same frequency, which provides a more reasonable basis for the planning, construction and operation of the wading project in the Yongjiang River.