尝试利用可靠度理论进行基坑工程中支护结构的受力及变形分析，通过调整杆件有限元方法中地基反力修正系数研究了模型不确定性对结果的影响；通过Monte－Carlo有限元方法研究了上性参数C，变异性对结果的影响，并提出了基于可靠度理论的基坑支护结构受力及变形的概率预测方法． The reliability theory was used to analyze the stress and deformation of the supporting structure in the foundation pit engineering. The effect of model uncertainty on the result was studied by adjusting the correction coefficient of the foundation reaction force in the finite element method of the member. The Monte-Carlo finite element was used. Methods The influence of the parameter C and the variability on the results was studied, and the probability prediction method for the force and deformation of the foundation pit supporting structure based on the reliability theory was proposed.