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文章使用经价格指数调整后的医疗保健支出作为医药消费量的代理变量,以城镇居民医药消费量的时序变化为评价指标,建立计量模型,采用最小二乘法,对1997—2005年30个省的相关数据进行回归分析,得出医药消费量的时序变化。发现在保证其他因素不变后,居民人均医药消费量在大部分年度不但没有增加反而下降的事实,证明医疗体制改革没有达到预期效果。最后本文建议医疗体制改革设计要从根本入手,要考虑到具体措施的可操作性。
This article uses the health care expenditure adjusted by the price index as the proxy variable of the medical consumption, sets up the econometric model based on the time series change of the medicinal consumption of the urban residents, adopts the least square method, Related data regression analysis, the timing of medical consumption derived changes. Found that after ensuring other factors remain unchanged, the per capita consumption of medicines by residents has not increased but decreased over most of the year, proving that the medical system reform failed to achieve the desired results. Finally, this paper suggests that the medical system reform should start from the fundamental design, taking into account the maneuverability of specific measures.