2030年,15年的时间跨度,职业教育究竟会发生怎样的变化?变成什么模样?很难预知和精准揣度。但变化发展的方式却不外乎两种:一种是平顺渐进式;另一种是激烈剧变式。前者是以量变为主;后者是显著量变而引发的质变。笔者倾向于第一种方式,因为中国的职业教育向前追溯,自2000年至今,新世纪第一个15年,已经取得了狂飙突进式的发展,其规模、数量、框架、格局等已基本成型,很难再有更 2030, 15 years of time span, vocational education what exactly will happen change? Become what? It is difficult to predict and accurate speculation. But the way of change and development is no more than two: one is smooth and gradual; the other is drastic and violent. The former is based on quantitative change; the latter is a qualitative change caused by significant quantitative changes. The author prefers the first approach because China’s vocational education has been traced back. Since 2000, the first 15 years of the new century have witnessed the radical development of hurricanes. The size, quantity, framework and pattern of such work have been basically Molding, it is difficult to have more