发电商的竞标决策属风险决策。文中结合具体的市场规则 ,分析了发电商竞标这一风险决策过程中的收益和机会损失情况 ,在采用概率分析方法进行量化处理后 ,提出了扩展期望收益的新概念并建立了相应的竞标决策模型。该模型将成本、收益、风险等因素有机地结合起来 ,并通过引入冒险因子和规避因子 ,很好地反映了发电商的风险偏好 ,即规避因子越大 ,决策越趋于保守 ;冒险因子越大 ,则决策越趋于冒险。最后 ,算例验证了模型的有效性 The bidding decision of the generator is a risk decision. Based on the specific market rules, this paper analyzes the loss of revenue and opportunity in the process of risk bidding by bidding for power generation companies. After adopting quantitative analysis method of probability analysis, a new concept of extending expected profit is proposed and the corresponding bidding decision is established model. The model organically combines the factors of cost, profit and risk, and introduces the risk factor and the avoidance factor to reflect the risk preference of the generator. That is to say, the larger the avoidance factor, the more conservative the decision. The more the risk factor is, Big, the decision-making more and more risky. Finally, an example shows the validity of the model