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11月欧洲的金融市场有两件事引起了人们极大的关注,其一是主要货币汇率急剧攀升,欧元/美元创下近二十个月的高位,英镑兑美元则创下十四年高位,显示在美国经济急剧放缓的情形下,市场对于强势美元及其政策的担心。其二是与美国去年的情形类似,欧洲目前出现了公债收益率倒挂(也被译为“反转”)的现象(即短债收益率高于长债收益率)。从理论上来讲,公债收益率倒挂表明市场对于未来的悲观,在许多情形下,这是经济陷入衰退的前兆,尤其是如果这种情形在较长时间内持续的话。这一现象和欧元区目前令人乐观的经济增长有些格格不入。欧元区今年 GDP 预计增长2.6%,不仅与上一年的1.5%不可同日而语,而且将创下互联网泡沫破灭以来的最高纪录。
There are two things that have drawn great attention in Europe’s financial markets in November: one is that the major currencies have risen sharply, the euro / dollar hit a nearly 20-month high and the pound hit a 14-year high against the dollar, showing In the midst of a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy, the market fears the strong dollar and its policies. The second is similar to the situation in the United States last year. In Europe, there is a phenomenon that the yield of the bond has been inverted (also translated as “reverse”) (that is, the short-term bond yields exceed the long-term bond yields). In theory, the upside of the yield on the bond shows the market’s pessimistic outlook for the future, which in many cases is a precursor to a recession in the economy, especially if the situation persists over a longer period of time. This phenomenon is somewhat at odds with the current optimistic economic growth in the euro area. The euro zone’s GDP this year is expected to grow by 2.6% this year, not only in the same breath as the previous year’s 1.5%, but also setting the highest record since the Internet bubble burst.