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利用1980~2014年间的大宗作物(玉米、水稻、小麦、棉花、油菜)面积数据,以省级行政区为研究单元,采用多种数理统计和GIS空间分析技术,结合同期作物之间的竞争性用地关系,对全国上述五类大宗作物的空间分布格局及其变化特征进行分析。研究结果表明:玉米的空间分布相对较均衡;小麦的空间格局总的变化不明显但是省际分布最不均衡;棉花近30 a来空间格局变化极其显著,其面积重心从河南境内不断地向西北地区移动,目前位于甘肃省境内;油菜的面积重心自湖北境内不断地向南推移到湖南境内,水稻的面积重心则自江西境内逐渐向北移动到湖北境内。另外,部分区域的同期作物(如油菜与小麦、棉花与春玉米)空间格局变化存在明显的“消-长”关系,特别是在甘肃和内蒙,油菜小麦的面积变化有着极强的负相关性,其pearson系数低于–0.8。作物种植的成本收益变化是造成这些大宗作物空间格局变化的主要原因,城市化发展的程度、农民非农就业机会的高低、同期作物之间的比较效益差距等也是这些大宗作物时空格局产生变化的重要原因。
Based on the data of bulk crops (corn, rice, wheat, cotton, canola) from 1980 to 2014, using the provincial administrative regions as the research unit, using various mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis techniques, combining with the competitive land between the same crops The relationship between these five types of bulk crops across the spatial distribution patterns and changes in the characteristics of the analysis. The results showed that: the spatial distribution of maize was relatively balanced; the spatial pattern of wheat did not change obviously but the inter-provincial distribution was the most unbalanced; the spatial pattern of cotton changed extremely significantly in the past 30 years, and its area center of gravity continuously moved from northwest The area is now moving in Gansu. The center of gravity of the area of rapeseed has been continuously moving southward from Hunan to Hunan. The center of gravity of rice has gradually moved northward from Hubei to Hubei. In addition, there is a clear relationship between spatial and temporal changes in the same period crops (such as rapeseed, wheat, cotton and spring maize) in some areas. Especially in Gansu and Inner Mongolia, there is a strong negative change in the area of rapeseed The correlation, whose pearson coefficient is lower than -0.8. The cost-benefit change of crop cultivation is the main reason for the change in the spatial pattern of these staple crops. The extent of urbanization, the level of non-agricultural job opportunities for farmers and the comparative benefit gap between crops during the same period are also the changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of these staple crops important reason.