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《国家能源发展战略行动计划》(2014~2020年)确定了我国在2020、2030年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重要分别达到15%、20%的能源发展战略目标;2016年又制定了《关于建立可再生能源开发利用目标引导制度的指导意见》和《可再生能源发电全额保障性收购管理办法》。在目前银行面临不良贷款率上升和可投资项目减少双重压力的背景下,可再生能源行业成了各家银行选择的投资重点,政府和银行均加快了风电、光伏等可再生能源项目的审批和投资速度。集中性的投资隐藏着巨大的风险,很多银行并没有认识到这个问题,也没有预先采取相应的对策。本文根据2015年风电、光伏发电、生物质能发电装机规模和国家确定的2020年发展目标及最新的风电光伏发电上网标杆电价政策,预测2016~2020年三种发电规模年增长率和电价附加收入与电价补贴支出的差额,揭示政策变化给银行贷款带来的风险,并提出化解风险的办法。
The National Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020) has set the strategic goal of energy development in China that non-fossil energy accounts for 15% and 20% of the primary energy consumption respectively by 2020 and 2030. In 2016, Guiding Opinions on Establishing a Targeted Guidance System for the Development and Utilization of Renewable Energy Sources “and the” Management Measures for Full Guaranteed Guaranty of Renewable Energy Power Generation. " Against the background of rising non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and diminished dual pressures on investable projects, the renewable energy industry has become the investment focus of various banks. Both the government and banks have accelerated the examination and approval of renewable energy projects such as wind power and photovoltaic power plants. Investment speed. Concentrated investment hidden huge risks, many banks did not recognize this problem, nor did they take appropriate countermeasures. Based on the installed capacity of wind power, photovoltaic power generation and biomass power generation in 2015 and the state-determined 2020 development target and the latest grid-connected tariff policy for wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation, this paper predicts the annual growth rates of three types of power generation and surcharges for electricity price from 2016 to 2020 And the difference between electricity subsidies and expenditures, revealing the risks brought by the policy changes to bank loans and putting forward measures to resolve the risks.