油气资源的远景预测有两个引人注目的趋势,即由定性预测向定量预测发展及越来越重视方法学的研究。 以往的预测工作更多地是注意了各种各样预测方法的研究。但由于地质情况极为复杂,资料的多少和可利用程度的不同,使得众多的方法不可避免地带有很大的局限性。有的方法在这里用效果较好,到那里效果就不好,有的在这种情况下能用,而在另外的情况下就不适用。由此,人们在近年来已逐渐从方法学的理论高度来研究预测的方法。应 There are two notable trends in the long-term prediction of oil and gas resources, from qualitative forecasting to quantitative forecasting and increasing emphasis on methodological studies. Past predictions focus more on the study of various prediction methods. However, due to the extremely complicated geological conditions, the differences in the amount of data available and the degree of availability make it inevitable that many methods have great limitations. There are some ways to use better results here, where the effect is not good, and some in this case can be used, and in other cases does not apply. Therefore, in recent years, people have gradually studied the method of prediction from the perspective of methodology. should