Multiple dominant gear meshing frequencies are present in the vibration signals collected from gearboxes and the conventional spiky features that represent initial gear fault conditions are usually difficult to detect. In order to solve this problem, we propose a new gearbox deterioration detection technique based on autoregressive modeling and hypothesis testing in this paper. A stationary autoregressive model was built by using a normal vibration signal from each shaft. The established autoregressive model was then applied to process fault signals from each shaft of a two-stage gearbox. What this paper investigated is a combined technique which unites a time-varying autoregressive model and a two sample Kolmogorov-Smov goodness-of-fit test, to detect the deterioration of gearing system with simultaneously variable shaft speed and variable load. The time-varying autoregressive model residuals representing both healthy and faulty gear conditions were compared with the original healthy time-synchronons average signals. Compared with the traditional kurtosis statistic, this technique for gearbox deterioration detection has shown significant advantages in highlighting the presence of incipient gear fault in all different speed shafts involved in the meshing motion under variable conditions.