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针对石羊河流域严峻的生态和社会现实问题，对１９９０～２０２０年水资源与经济社会发展趋势开展了动力学模拟研究。多方案策略分析表明，在现有水资源条件下，用水矛盾将日益加剧，粮食总产天明显增长。随着人口增加，将失去目前商品粮生产基地的优势。仅靠现有的水资源供需大体平衡，势将造成大面积耕地缺水和绿洲经济社会的蜷缩。应早日实施外调水工程，对商品粮基地进行必要的战略调整。
Aiming at the severe ecological and social problems in Shiyang River Basin, the dynamic simulation of water resources and economic and social development from 1990 to 2020 was carried out. The multi-program strategic analysis shows that under the existing water resources conditions, the contradiction between water use will be aggravated and the total output of grain will be significantly increased. As the population increases, the advantages of the current commodity grain production base will be lost. The current balance of supply and demand of water resources will only result in a large area of water shortage in cultivated land and a crouch in the oasis economy and society. The water transfer project should be implemented as soon as possible to make necessary strategic adjustments to the commodity grain base.