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股改的进程已到第二批试点阶段,总计40多家试点公司的方案越发令人眼花缭乱。如何识别各家试点方案的优劣?投资者怎样才能找到一种正确理解方案并理性讨价还价的思想工具?在“用脚投票”的股票市场,这种抉择往往不是简单的“仁者见仁、智者见智”。假如设定一些合理、简单而客观的指标,把这些股改方案进行排列对比,将有助于投资者作出更为清醒、准确的判断。以下,本文作者制作了以四种股改关键分析指标——流通股送得率、非流通股送出率、流通A股含权系数和两类股东公平度,将目前的试点公司据此进行对比排序。通过这些指标的横向、纵向比较,可以为中小投资者的投资决策提供一个便于理解的标尺。事实上,尽管很多公司的股改方案看似达到了双赢的结果,但流通股股东和非流通股股东之间在收益率上的差距相当悬殊。比如苏宁电器(002024),其“10股送2.5股”的股改方案实际对流通股股东的让利相当有限。根据联合证券分析师测算,该方案实施后将使非流通股股东获得高达385%左右的收益率,而流通股股东仅获得约25%左右的收益水平。这意味着,在正常经营下,流通股股东要用15年以上的时间才可能获得385%的收益水平,而考虑到货币时间价值,这个时间则可能长达20年以上!显而易见,在持股并冒着较大不确定性持续经营和及时高溢价套现的抉择中,非流通股股东套现预期将十分强烈。因此,在考虑上市公司价值评估的同时,辨别股改方案的公平合理与否、规避风险公司,对于投资者来说至关重要。
The share reform process has reached the second batch of pilot phase, a total of more than 40 pilot company’s programs even more dazzling. How to identify the pros and cons of each pilot program? How can investors find a correct understanding of the program and rational bargaining tools? In the “vote by foot” stock market, this choice is often not simple “benevolent, benevolent see the wisdom ”. If you set some reasonable, simple and objective indicators, the arrangement of these share reform programs will help investors to make a more sober and accurate judgments. In the following, the author of the paper made four kinds of stock reform key analysis indicators - the rate of circulation of shares sent, non-tradable shares sent rate, the circulation of A-share weight coefficient and two types of shareholders fairness, the current pilot companies accordingly sort . Through the horizontal and vertical comparison of these indicators, we can provide an easy-to-understand benchmark for the investment decision of small and medium-sized investors. In fact, although many companies seem to have achieved a win-win result in the share reform program, the gap in returns between tradable shareholders and non-tradable shareholders is quite wide. For example, Suning Appliance (002024), the “10 shares sent 2.5 shares,” the share reform program actually allowance to shareholders of tradable shares is quite limited. According to United Securities analysts estimated that after the implementation of the program will enable non-tradable shareholders get about 385% yield, while tradable shareholders only get about 25% of the level of income. This means that under normal conditions, shareholders of tradable shares will have to earn 385% of their profit in more than 15 years, and this time may take as long as 20 years, taking into account the time value of money! Obviously, And risking greater uncertainty of sustainable operation and timely high premium cash choice, non-tradable shareholders are expected to be very strong. Therefore, considering the valuation of listed companies at the same time, to identify fair and reasonable stock reform program or not, to avoid the risk of the company, for investors is crucial.