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浙江海洋经济飞速发展,突显了研究沿海地区台风暴潮等自然灾害的重要性.本研究采用无结构三角形网格有限体积海洋数值模型,模拟了宁波近海台风暴潮可能最大增水.首先选取0407号强台风“蒲公英”的增水过程进行宁波近海可能最大增水的后报分析,其结果与东海的4个地面台站水位资料相比显示后报结果的平均绝对误差为0.075 m,平均相对误差为1.32%.然后,利用该模式对1997～2012年期间影响宁波近海的15个典型台风进行了台风暴潮可能最大增水的后报,误差统计显示后报的水位平均绝对误差为0.160 m,相对误差为2.95%.最后,通过引入风暴潮集合预报技术,利用假想台风进行了预报试验,结果表明宁波近海台风暴潮的可能最高水位为7.735 m.这些研究结果可为宁波近海重点工程海域的风险评估与区划提供重要的参考.
The rapid development of marine economy in Zhejiang underscores the importance of studying natural disasters such as typhoon surge in coastal areas.In this study, a finite volume ocean numerical model of unstructured triangular grid was used to simulate the possible maximum water surge of typhoon surges in the coastal areas of Ningbo.Firstly, 0407 The typhoon “dandelion ” after the augmentation process of Ningbo coastal waters may be the largest water augmentation analysis, the results and the East China Sea 4 ground station water level data show that the average absolute error of after-report results is 0.075 m, The average relative error is 1.32% .Then, 15 typical typhoons that affect the offshore of Ningbo from 1997 to 2012 are used to report the largest possible increase of typhoon surge, and the error statistics show that the average absolute error of the reported water level is 0.160 m, and the relative error is 2.95% .Finally, by using the storm surge ensemble forecasting technique, the forecast test is conducted by using the hypothetical typhoon, and the result shows that the highest possible typhoon water level in Ningbo offshore is 7.735 m. The risk assessment and zoning of engineering sea area provide important reference.