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本文是在过去多种方案的基础上,经提炼、修改、补充就其南海热带气旋从其生成开始到发展阶段,对其移动过程中的具体路径、强度变化及影响的地区范围等方面,按区、类分别研制出一套定性判断和定量预报相结合的客观预报流程,全流程分四个子系统执行。 资料选取（970-1979）十年7—9月份的天气图资料。取样范围为进入10°—23°N, 110°—120°E海区的103个南海热带气旋作样本。并用（1980-1985）六年 11个南海热带气旋作独立样本检验、以鉴定所建方程的稳定性和正确率。从试报效果看,本方案具有一定的预报能力,使客观预报方法在应用于南海热带气旋的多种预报方面,显示它的系统性,并具有一定的实用价值。
On the basis of a variety of programs in the past, this paper, on the basis of the refinement, modification and supplementing of the tropical cyclone in the South China Sea, from its formation to development stage, on the specific path and intensity of its movement, Districts and classes respectively developed a set of objective forecasting procedures combining qualitative judgment and quantitative forecasting. The whole process was implemented in four subsystems. Data selection (970-1979) Ten-year July-September weather map data. The sampling range is 103 samples of tropical cyclones entering the sea area of 10 ° -23 ° N, 110 ° -120 ° E. And using (1980-1985) 11 South China Sea tropical cyclone for six years as an independent sample test to identify the stability of the equation and the correct rate. From the test results, the program has a certain ability to forecast, so that the objective forecasting method in the South China Sea tropical cyclone a variety of forecasts, show its systematic, and has some practical value.