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在简要介绍国外油气管道风险评价技术发展动态的基础上,结合我国油气管道生产管理的现实状况,从采集真实可靠的评价原始数据、风险影响因素的界定、随机因素的概率模型和模糊因素的潜在影响等四方面论述了把国外管道风险评价技术用于我国油气管道的风险管理将面临的技术挑战。并认为在消化吸收国外管道风险评价技术成功经验的基础上,编制我国管道风险评价技术指南,逐步开发适合中国国情的油气管道风险评价体系和评价软件,是我国发展油气管道风险评价技术的正确思路。从发挥技术标准的作用、建立全国油气管道信息数据库、加快管道风险评价体系研究步伐以及研究与应用相结合等四个方面提出了具体的工作建议
Based on the brief introduction of the development trend of foreign oil and gas pipelines risk assessment technology and the actual situation of oil and gas pipelines production management in our country, this paper starts with the collection of real and reliable raw data, the definition of risk factors, the probabilistic model of random factors and the potential of fuzzy factors Impact and other four aspects discussed the foreign pipeline risk assessment technology used in China’s oil and gas pipeline risk management will face the technical challenges. Based on the successful experience of digestion and absorption of foreign pipeline risk assessment techniques, it is believed that the compilation of technical guidelines for pipeline risk assessment in our country and the development of oil and gas pipelines risk assessment system and evaluation software that are suitable for China’s national conditions are the correct way to develop risk assessment techniques for oil and gas pipelines in China. . Put forward specific working suggestions from the four aspects of playing the role of technical standards, establishing a national oil and gas pipeline information database, accelerating the pace of research on pipeline risk assessment system and combining research and application