1.引言伴随着欧洲统一大市场与北美自由贸易区协定的到来,人们对于区域经济一体化已日益热中。当人们正在判定三极模式的可能性时,亚洲太平洋地区对于形成一个囊括所有国家的自由贸易区(FTA)却反映冷淡。而结成小的集团,象东南国家联盟(ASEAN)或东南亚国家联盟同新兴工业化经济国家,则很有可能形成自由贸易区。与之相近似,拉丁美洲与非洲可能各包括几个小的经济集团。根据瓦伊纳—米德传统理论,一种优惠贸易安排的福利效果是用静态的贸易创造/贸易转移二 1. INTRODUCTION With the arrival of the European unified market and the North American Free Trade Area Agreement, people are increasingly interested in regional economic integration. When people are judging the possibility of a three-pole model, the Asia-Pacific region does not reflect the formation of a free trade area (FTA) that encompasses all countries. Small groups, such as the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) or the Association of South East Asian Nations and the newly industrialized economies, are likely to form free trade zones. In a similar way, Latin America and Africa may each include several small economic groups. According to the Vaynna-Mead tradition, the welfare effect of a preferential trade arrangement is to use static trade creation/trade transfer II.