以龙羊峡水库年平均入库流量预报为例，根据灰色系统理论的建模方法，利用龙羊峡水库入库水量代表站唐乃亥水文站的实测径流资料，建立了一个ＧＭ（１，１）拓扑预测模型，用于黄河上游径流的长期预报，并取得了较为满意的结果。 Taking the prediction of annual mean inflow rate of Longyangxia Reservoir as an example, according to the modeling method of gray system theory and using the measured runoff data of Tangnaizi Hydrometric Station representing the water intake of Longyangxia Reservoir, a GM (1,1) Topological prediction model is used for long-term prediction of runoff in the upper Yellow River and has achieved satisfactory results.