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本文采用协整理论对1993至2006年我国的货币供给量(M1)与表征我国宏观经济发展的各指标(GDP、CPI、FER、FAI)进行了平稳性分析、协整检验和Granger因果关系分析,得出结论:货币供给与物价和产出之间都存在显著的长期协整关系,这些变量组之间都存在稳定的长期均衡关系,中央银行可以根据均衡关系适当调节货币供给增量和存量以控制国家的通货膨胀与通货膨胀预期。
In this paper, we use the cointegration theory to analyze the stability of China’s money supply (M1) and the indicators that characterize China’s macroeconomic development (GDP, CPI, FER, FAI) from 1993 to 2006, cointegration test and Granger causality analysis , It is concluded that there is a significant long-term cointegration relationship between money supply and price and output, and there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between these variable groups. The central bank can appropriately adjust the increment and stock of money supply according to the equilibrium relationship To control the country’s inflation and inflation expectations.