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随着第一季度数据的公布,人们(无论是学界还是媒体)对国内经济过热基本上有了共识。而金融运行的数字,则更为人瞩目。一季度末全部金融机构本外币各项贷款余额为17.9万亿元,同比增长20.7%,人民币各项贷款余额16. 7万亿元,同比增长20.1%。事实上,在2003年8月央行就试图通过提高存款准备金率的办法来削减商业银行对部分行业的过度投资。在年初政府也对三大热行业投资进行一定的限制,同时央行在3月推出了差别存款准备金率制度,但其效果都不显著。现在我们要问的是,为什么政府三令五申、央行出台一个又一个的货币政策,对遏制投资过快增长就是成效不显?是宏观经济政策失灵还是
With the release of the data in the first quarter, people (both academics and the media) basically agreed on overheating of the domestic economy. The number of financial operations, even more eye-catching. At the end of the first quarter, the outstanding balance of all loans in both domestic and foreign currencies of financial institutions totaled 17.9 trillion yuan, up 20.7% over the same period of the previous year. The outstanding loans of various currencies amounted to 16.7 trillion yuan, up 20.1% over the same period of last year. In fact, in August 2003, the central bank tried to cut commercial banks’ over-investment in some sectors by raising the deposit reserve ratio. At the beginning of the year, the government also imposed some restrictions on the investment in the three hot sectors. At the same time, the central bank introduced a differential deposit reserve ratio in March, but its effect was insignificant. Now we have to ask is why the government’s repeated orders and the introduction by the central bank of monetary policies one after another are not effective in curbing the excessive growth of investment? Are macroeconomic policy failures or