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本文通过对我国1993~2014年固定资本形成总量、经济增长与FDI的分析,研究结果表明:各变量之间存在长期均衡关系,FDI在当期和滞后一期对我国国内的投资呈现正的外部性,然而在滞后二期滞后,FDI对我国国内总投资呈现负的外部性。根据Wald检验可知,从长期来看,FDI对我国国内总投资的总效应为挤出效应,即1单位的FDI的增加会使得国内总投资的增加小于1各单位。
Through the analysis of the total amount of fixed capital formation, economic growth and FDI in China from 1993 to 2014, the results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables, and the FDI in the current period and the lagging one period are positive to the domestic investment However, in the lag two lags behind, FDI has negative externalities to China’s total domestic investment. According to Wald’s test, in the long run, the total effect of FDI on China’s total domestic investment is the crowding-out effect. That is, the increase of 1 unit of FDI will make the increase of total domestic investment less than 1 unit.