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运用层次分析法与熵权法相结合的方法,构建洞庭湖区城镇化综合发展水平和水资源开发利用综合潜力评价指标体系和响应关系模型,分析2001—2010年洞庭湖区城镇化发展与水资源开发利用的主要影响因素、变化特征以及两者响应特征.结果表明:研究期间,洞庭湖区处于城镇化快速发展时期和规模扩张阶段,经济城镇化和社会城镇化水平滞后于人口城镇化和空间城镇化水平,城镇化发展质量和效益有待提升;伴随城镇化进程的推进,湖区用水负荷逐年增大,水资源利用效率和管理水平稳步提升,其中,水资源本底条件和开发利用程度受湖区水文条件的影响更显著.在2001、2002、2005、2006、2007、2009年,洞庭湖区城镇化的发展在一定程度上受到水资源系统的约束.目前,洞庭湖区将面临提高城镇化水平和质量的双重任务,必须改变传统的外延型扩张模式,提高水资源保障能力.
By using the method of AHP and entropy method, this paper constructs the comprehensive evaluation index system and response relation model of comprehensive development potential of urbanization and water resources development and utilization of Dongting Lake area, and analyzes the urbanization development and water resources development and utilization of Dongting Lake area from 2001 to 2010 The main influencing factors, the changing characteristics and the response characteristics of the two.The results show that during the study period, the Dongting Lake area is in the stage of rapid urbanization and scale expansion, the level of economic urbanization and social urbanization lags behind that of population urbanization and space urbanization The quality and efficiency of urbanization development need to be improved. Along with the advancement of urbanization, the water load of the lake area increases year by year, and the utilization efficiency and management level of water resources steadily increase. The background conditions of water resources and the extent of development and utilization are affected by the hydrological conditions The impact is more significant.In 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, the development of Dongting Lake urbanization is to some extent constrained by the water resources system.Currently, Dongting Lake District will face the dual task of improving the level and quality of urbanization , We must change the traditional extension mode of extension and improve the ability of water resources support.