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目的探讨利用流行性感冒(流感)哨点监测网络数据开展流感流行的预警方法。方法选择流感监测质量较稳定的年份,计算各周相应的流感样病例(ILI)占哨点监测医院门诊就诊病例总数的比例(ILI%)和流感病毒检出阳性率及两者的相关性,利用流感病毒检出阳性率超过流行季峰值的40%界定流行高峰,换算出相应的ILI%预警阈值开展流感疫情预警工作。结果舟山市2010年全年门诊就诊的ILI%平均为1.62%(95%CI:1.43%～1.82%),流感病毒检出阳性率平均为26.77%(95%CI:20.06%～33.49%),流感高峰出现时的流感病毒检出阳性率界值为32.31%,换算成ILI%=1.73%作为流感疫情预警阈值。结论利用ILI%作为流感疫情的预警指标简单易行、灵敏特异,适用于建立运行流感样病例监测点的基层机构开展流感预警工作。
Objective To explore the early warning method of using influenza (influenza) sentinel surveillance network data to carry out the epidemic of influenza. Methods The year with more stable quality of influenza surveillance was selected, and the proportion of ILI among the hospital outpatient visits of sentinel surveillance hospitals (ILI%) and the positive rate of influenza virus and the correlation between them were calculated. The detection of influenza virus positive rate of more than 40% of the peak season peak defined epidemic, converted the corresponding ILI% warning threshold for early warning of flu outbreak. Results The average ILI% of outpatients in Zhoushan in 2010 was 1.62% (95% CI: 1.43% -1.82%). The positive rate of influenza virus was 26.77% (95% CI: 20.06% -33.49%), The positive rate of influenza virus detected at the peak of influenza was 32.31%, converted to ILI% = 1.73% as the early warning threshold of influenza. Conclusion The use of ILI% as an early warning indicator of influenza epidemic is simple, sensitive and specific, and is suitable for setting up early warning work for grassroots organizations that run influenza-like illness surveillance sites.