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东海及外缘海域月平均表层海水温度场变化的持续性较好,正温度距平场最长可持续18个月,负温度距平场可持续14个月。能谱分析结果表明,由于该区受黑潮暖流系统的控制,存在明显的6、7年周期。 文中给出了几种以数理统计为基础的表层水温场预报方法,即单要素和多因子的经验正交场分解时间序列预报方法,对东海及外缘海域月平均表层海水温度场进行了连续6年(1978-1983)的实时预报,其效果比较稳定,预报误差较小,从1978～1983年的平均预报误差为0.53℃。
The monthly average surface seawater temperature field in the East China Sea and the outer rim of the sea area has a good continuity. The positive temperature anomaly field lasts for 18 months and the negative temperature anomaly field lasts for 14 months. The results of energy spectrum analysis show that due to the control by Kuroshio current system, there is a clear cycle of 6-7 years. In this paper, several forecasting methods of surface water temperature field based on mathematical statistics are given, which are the single factor and multi-factor empirical orthogonal field decomposition time series forecasting method. The monthly mean surface seawater temperature field in the East China Sea and the outer edge waters are continuous The real-time forecast of 6 years (1978-1983) has a relatively stable result and a small forecast error, with an average forecast error of 0.53 ° C from 1978 to 1983.