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文章通过对影响产品退市的因素进行研究,运用生存分析模型确定了对产品退市有显著影响的两大因素及其影响机制,它们分别是:上市前期的销量变化率和退市前期的平均销量。具体而言:上市前期的销量增长率越高,退市的危险性越小,生存时间越长;退市前期的平均销量越高,退市的危险性越小,生存时间越长。同时本研究还验证了市场份额对两大影响因素的调节作用。另外本研究还发现了与人们通常的直觉不同的一个结果,市场份额低的产品比市场份额高的产品有更长的生存时间,对此我们运用“替代效应”进行解释。本文的研究结果为企业进行产品退市决策提供了理论指导。
By studying the factors affecting the delisting of the product, the article uses the survival analysis model to determine the two factors that have a significant impact on the delisting of the product and their mechanisms of influence. These are the change rate of the sales volume in the pre-listing period and the average of the pre-delisting sales volume Sales. Specifically: the higher the pre-IPO sales growth rate, the lower the risk of delisting and the longer the survival time; the higher the average sales volume during the pre-delisting period, the lower the risk of delisting and the longer the survival time. At the same time, this study also verifies the regulatory role of market share on the two major influencing factors. In addition, this study also found a result that is different from people’s usual intuition. Products with low market share have a longer survival time than products with high market share. We use “substitution effect” to explain this. The results of this paper provide theoretical guidance for enterprises to make delisting decisions.