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本文以晋冀蒙交界区域为研究区,基于研究区内1984年以来的区域精密水准和1999年以来的GNSS地壳形变观测数据.通过对区域精密水准数据采用拟稳平差、Kriging插值方法进行计算处理,获取研究区地壳垂直运动结果;对GNSS数据使用GAMIT/GLOBK软件计算,并采用欧拉矢量法转换,获取研究区地壳水平运动结果.经分析研究认为:研究区内地壳水平运动和垂直运动具有一定的关联性,但水平运动弱于垂直运动;利用区域精密水准成果确定的下降隆升垂直运动交界高梯度带(大于20 mm)是未来发生4.0级及以上地震的重点区域,说明地壳垂直运动信息对地震危险区判定具有很好的指示意义;通过地震活动统计发现地震活动分布具有明显的分区规律和迁移现象,与研究区地壳垂直运动变化规律较一致,表明区域精密水准是捕捉地壳和断层垂向运动的有效方法,另外在部分具有走滑和低倾角正断层附近地壳水平运动和垂直运动具有很好的关联性,且当关联性不一致或垂直运动活跃同时水平运动微弱时,附近未来发生地震的可能性较大.
Based on the regional precision level of the study area since 1984 and the GNSS crustal deformation observation data since 1999, this paper takes the Jinjian-Mongolian border area as the research area, and calculates the regional precision leveling data by using the quasi-steady-state adjustment and Kriging interpolation method And get the crustal vertical movement result in the study area.The GNSS data are calculated by GAMIT / GLOBK software and transformed by Euler’s vector method to get the horizontal crustal movement results in the study area.Analysis shows that: Crustal horizontal motion and vertical motion But the horizontal movement is weaker than the vertical movement. The high gradient zone (> 20 mm) at the boundary of the downhill uplift vertical movement determined by the regional precision leveling result is the key area for the magnitude 4.0 and above earthquakes in the future, indicating that the vertical The movement information has a good indication to the judgment of the danger zone of earthquake. According to the statistics of seismic activity, the distribution of seismic activity has obvious zoning law and migration phenomenon, which is consistent with the regularity of crustal vertical movement in the study area. An effective method of fault vertical movement, in addition to the part of a slip and low tilt The possibility of being close to horizontal movement of crustal faults and vertical movement has a good correlation, and when the association is inconsistent or vertical movement of the active horizontal movement while weak near future large earthquakes.