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鉴于儿童新感染的发病率是考核一个区血吸虫病防治效果的良好指标,但因需要连续观察两年,在防治开始之前很难有数据可作为比较的基点。作者试图从菲律宾地区7～10岁学龄儿童各年龄组的患病率(粪检阳性率),应用统计学的回归线公式以估计本病的年发病率。假定以往几年间的发病率a是稳定的,对各年龄组间亦无差异,而每年的自愈率(转阴率)可略而不计,因此在一年间仍保持阴性机率为b(即1-a),则于年龄为x时粪检阴性的机率为Q_x,即其初时阴性机率为Q_o乘以b~x(Q_x=b~xQ_o),各取对数,可得log Q_x=log b~x+log Q_o即logQ_x=xlog(1-
Given that the incidence of new infections in children is a good indicator of the effectiveness of schistosomiasis control in a district, the continuous observation of two years requires that it is difficult to have a baseline for comparison before the start of control. The authors attempted to estimate the annual incidence of this disease using the statistical regression line formula from the prevalence (fecal seizure positive rate) of each age group of school-age children aged 7 to 10 in the Philippines. Assuming that the morbidity a in previous years is stable and there is no difference among all age groups, the annual rate of self-healing (negative rate) can be negligible, so the negative rate of b is maintained for one year (ie, 1 -a), the probability of fecal negative at the age of x is Q_x, that is, the initial chance of negative is Q_o multiplied by b ~ x (Q_x = b ~ xQ_o), the logarithm obtained, log Q_x = log b ~ x + log Q_o ie logQ_x = xlog (1-