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选取2006年1月~2016年12月月度数据,构建协整检验模型。实证分析结果表明,定价机制改变对中国进口澳大利亚铁矿石的数量具有显著影响,会导致进口数量波动性显著增加;中国钢铁产量对其进口澳大利亚铁矿石的数量具有显著正向影响;澳大利亚铁矿石相对价格、海运费及其工人罢工损失工作日等对中国进口澳大利亚铁矿石的数量具有反向显著影响。据此,提出了加快化解钢铁产业过剩产能、提升海运市场主体地位、拓展多元化进口渠道、加大废钢有效利用、努力打造有利定价模式等对策建议。
Select monthly data from January 2006 to December 2016 to construct a cointegration test model. The empirical analysis shows that the change of pricing mechanism has a significant impact on the quantity of iron ore imported into China and will lead to a significant increase in the volume of imports. China’s steel output has a significant positive impact on the quantity of iron ore imported into Australia. The Australian iron The relative price of ore, shipping costs and workers’ lost days on strike have an inverse and significant effect on the amount of iron ore imported into China from Australia. Accordingly, some countermeasures are put forward, such as speeding up the overcapacity of the steel industry, upgrading the dominant position of the shipping market, expanding diversified import channels, increasing the effective utilization of scrap, and striving to create a favorable pricing model.