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目的探索广西经异性传播艾滋病病人的潜伏期,为进一步开展前瞻性队列研究提供参考依据。方法应用回顾性调查方法,收集具有明确HIV感染和AIDS发病时间标志的经异性传播艾滋病病例,应用Kaplan-Meier生存时间模型描绘其发病时间曲线,以估算广西本地的经异性传播艾滋病病人的潜伏期。结果本次调查观察到经异性传播艾滋病病人的潜伏期中位数为58个月,95%可信区间为50.50～65.51月;其中<30岁、30～、50～3个年龄段人群的潜伏期中位数分别为72月、60月、48月;潜伏期和HIV感染时年龄呈负相关(相关系数矩阵分析:相关系数-0.256,P<0.01)。结论广西异性途径传播艾滋病病人的潜伏期可能短于我国既往文献报道其它途径传播艾滋病病人的潜伏期;病人HIV感染时的年龄越大,其潜伏期越短;不同性别和民族间经异性传播艾滋病人的潜伏期差别无显著性意义;限于回顾性调查的先天不足,本调查结果可作为潜伏期研究的探索性数据,为进一步开展前瞻性队列研究提供参考依据。
Objective To explore the latent period of heterosexual transmission of AIDS patients in Guangxi and provide reference for further prospective cohort study. Methods A retrospective survey was conducted to collect cases of HIV transmission with definite HIV infection and time to AIDS signs. The Kaplan-Meier survival time model was used to characterize the onset time curve to estimate the latent period of heterosexual transmission of HIV in Guangxi. Results The survey found that the median incubation period of heterosexual transmission of AIDS patients was 58 months, 95% confidence interval was 50.55 ~ 65.51 months; of which <30 years, 30 ~, 50 ~ 3 groups of people in the incubation period The median was 72 months, 60 months and 48 months respectively. The incubation period was negatively correlated with the age of HIV infection (Correlation coefficient matrix analysis: correlation coefficient -0.256, P <0.01). Conclusion The latent period of transmission of AIDS patients by heterosexual transmission in Guangxi may be shorter than that of previous transmission of AIDS patients in our country. The higher the age of HIV infection, the shorter the incubation period. The incubation period of heterosexual transmission of AIDS among different sexes and ethnic groups There was no significant difference between the two groups. Due to the inherent deficiencies of retrospective investigation, the findings of this survey can be used as exploratory data of latency study to provide reference for further prospective cohort study.