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枯季水文径流预测是现代水文预测预报的一个重要组成部分。随着社会经济发展和人口增加,水资源问题越来越突出,因此开展枯季水文径流模拟预测为准确把握流域枯季水资源水量和水文过程提供依据。西江流域是珠江水系的第一大支流,近年来由于径流量减少,特别是枯季径流变化较大,珠江三角洲河口咸潮上溯年年发生,影响区域生产生活,因此有必要开展枯季径流模拟预测研究。采用多元回归分析和新安江模型研究枯季流量模拟预测过程,为了研究模型在此区域枯季径流模拟预测的适用性,选择西江梧州水文站的数据进行参数率定和验证。经比较分析,认为新安江模型在枯季径流模拟预测中效果较好,模拟预测结果为流量峰值相对误差小于20%,径流深相对误差小于15%,确定性系数值大于0.70,精度较好,说明新安江模型在梧州水文站的枯季径流模拟预测中是适用的。
Hydrological runoff forecast in dry season is an important part of modern hydrological forecasting. With the socio-economic development and population increase, water resources problems become more and more prominent. Therefore, carrying out dry season hydrological runoff simulation forecasting provides the basis for accurately grasping the dry season water resources and hydrological processes. In recent years, the Xijiang River Basin is the first major tributary of the Pearl River system. In recent years, due to the decrease of runoff, especially the change of runoff in the dry season and the salt tide in the Pearl River Delta uplifting each year, affecting the regional production and life, it is necessary to carry out the dry season runoff simulation Predictive research. Multivariate regression analysis and Xin’anjiang model were used to study the simulation of the dry season flow. In order to study the applicability of the model in this season’s dry season runoff simulation, the data of Wuzhou Hydrological Station in the Xijiang River was selected for parameter calibration and verification. The comparative analysis shows that the Xin’anjiang model is better in runoff simulation in dry season. The simulation results show that the relative error of flow peak is less than 20%, the relative error of runoff is less than 15% and the certainty coefficient is greater than 0.70, This shows that Xin’anjiang model is suitable for the simulation of dry season runoff at Wuzhou Hydrological Station.