建立电信业务发展预测数学模型 ,在进行市场调查、相关分析的基础上 ,以黑龙江省住宅电话发展预测为例 ,分别利用用户需求意向调查法、回归分析法、专家意见预测法对电信业务发展趋势进行预测 ,并对各预测方法进行评价 ,提出加权综合预测的方法 ,得出预测结论 Based on market survey and related analysis, taking the prediction of residential telephone development in Heilongjiang Province as an example, this paper makes use of user-oriented intentional investigation, regression analysis and expert opinion prediction to analyze the development trend of telecommunication services Forecasting, evaluating each forecasting method, putting forward the method of weighted comprehensive forecasting, and drawing the conclusion of forecast