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基于亚洲艾滋病流行模型(Asian Epidemic Model,AEM)基本思想,建立我国艾滋病流行预测模型.利用该模型,估计某地1989—2007年艾滋病流行状况,同时设计不同行为改变方案,预测该地2008—2020年艾滋病流行趋势.
Based on the basic idea of Asian Epidemic Model (AEM), this paper establishes a model of HIV / AIDS epidemic in China, and uses the model to estimate the prevalence of HIV / AIDS in a certain place from 1989 to 2007 and at the same time designs different behavioral change plans to predict the 2008-2020 AIDS epidemic trend.